Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation – Conference on World Affairs – Boulder, Colorado: Conference Video


Tony Seba 1 images

 

Published on Apr 25, 2018

tony-seba 2 -ev-cost-curve‘Rethinking the Future – Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation’ is Tony Seba’s opening keynote at the 70th annual Conference on World Affairs in Boulder, Colorado, April 9th, 2018. The Clean Disruption will be the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption of energy and transportation in history. Based on Seba’s #1 Amazon bestselling book “Clean Disruption” and Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030, this presentation lays out what the key technologies and business model innovations are (batteries, electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles, ride-hailing and solar PV), how this technology disruption will unfold over the next decade as well as key implications for society, finance, industry, cities, geopolitics, and infrastructure. The 2020s will be the most technologically disruptive decade in history. By analyzing and anticipating these disruptions we can learn that the benefits to humanity will be immense but to seize the upside we will need to mitigate the negative consequences. As the opening keynote speaker at the prestigious Conference on World Affairs, Seba follows on the footsteps of luminaries such as Eleanor Roosevelt and Buckminster Fuller.

Watch the Video 
 
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Supporting the EV Revolution: New battery technologies are getting a “charge” from venture investors


Battery Investors 5 ev-salesVenture capital investors once again are getting charged up over new battery technologies.

The quest to build a better battery has occupied venture investors for nearly a decade, since the initial clean technology investment bubble of the mid-2000s.

Read More: Mobility Disruption by Tony Seba – Silicon Valley Entrepreneur and Lecturer at Stanford University – The Coming EV Revolution by 2030?

Battery Investors 6 Announcements

Now, some of those same investors are returning to invest in battery businesses, drawn by the promise of novel chemistries and new materials that aim to make more powerful, smaller and safer batteries.

One of the latest to raise new money is Gridtential, a battery technology developer pitching a new take on a classic battery chemistry… the centuries old lead acid battery. Gridtential’s innovation, for which it’s filed several patents, is to use silicon plating instead of non-reactive lead plating in the battery.

The company’s novel approach has won it the backing of four big battery manufacturers, in an earlier $6 million round of funding in January, and now the company has raised another $5 million to continue to build out the business from new investor 1955 Capital.

Gridtential’s funding is the latest in a series of new investments into battery companies coming from venture firms this year.

Battery companies raised $480 million in the first half of the year according to data from cleantech investment and advisory services firm Mercom Capital.

Much of that capital was actually committed to one big battery company, Microvast. The Texas-based battery manufacturer raised $400 million in funding led by CITIC Securities and CDH Investment — two of China’s biggest and best investment firms.

Battery Investors 7 china-leads-push-for-new-energy-technologies-lg-11272017

The presence of big Chinese investors in a Stafford, Texas-based company shouldn’t come as a surprise. Batteries are big business (just ask Tesla).

As more vehicles become electrified, the demand for new energy storage solutions will just continue to climb. Add a movement to put more renewable energy on the electricity grid, and that more than doubles the demand for good, big, high performance storage solutions. Go Ultra Low Electric Vehicle on charge on a London street

Indeed, major tech companies are swarming all over the battery business. In addition to Tesla’s push into power, Alphabet is also looking at developing new grid-scale storage technologies, according to a recent report from Bloomberg.

Go Ultra Low Nissan LEAF (L) and Kia Soul EV (R) on charge on a London street. Ultra-low emission vehicles such as this can cost as little as 2p per mile to run and some electric cars and vans have a range of up to 700 miles.

Battery industry players aren’t sitting on their hands, and that’s why companies like East Penn Manufacturing, the largest single-site, lead-acid battery plant; Crown Battery Manufacturing, a developer of deep-cycle applications; Leoch International, one of the biggest lead acid battery exporters in China, and Power-Sonic Inc., a specialty battery distributor all committed capital.

“What’s unique about the battery is two things. One is the use of silicon. It’s built as a stack of cells in series rather than a group of cells in parallel. The silicon plates are used as current collectors — they are really very thin pieces of wire that connect one cell to the next,” explains chief executive Chris Beekhuis. “It creates a density of current and uniform temperature across the plate, both of which prevent sulfation.”

As the energy storage world focuses its attention on building better batteries based on lithium-ion technology (the batteries that are in cell phones and electric vehicles), traditional battery manufacturers could potentially be nervous about seeing their market share erode.

 

With its new design for lead acid batteries, Gridtential is making a smaller, more energy dense, lead acid battery that is perfect for use in hybrid vehicles, storing energy from the power grid and creating backup power supplies.

The other benefit of silicon (in addition to being less toxic), is that a massive supply chain already exists for the stuff. Solar panels and chip manufacturers have created a huge amount of manufacturing supply for the raw materials (something that’s becoming a problem for the lithium-ion business), and the material is relatively cheap, Beekhuis said.

It’s also 40% lighter than a traditional lead battery and will be cost competitive with existing battery costs at roughly $300 per kilowatt-hour of storage in automotive applications.

Unlike other battery companies that intend to manufacture and sell their own batteries, Gridtential intends to license its process (like a more traditional software business would). Indeed, the company has brought in a former Dolby executive to run its licensing operations.

That means, Gridtential’s trademarked “silicon joule” technology could become the Intel inside for lead acid battery makers.

“You’re combining the best of lithium-ion and lead acid in a product that is attractive to the market,” says Andrew Chung, the founder of 1955 Capital .

Chung, a longtime investor in sustainability technologies, sees Gridtential as a response to the capitally intensive missteps that investors have made in the past when backing battery companies.

“Can you commercialize it capital efficiently?” Chung asked. That’s the big question companies face and in the case of Gridtential, the reliance on silicon is critical. “You’re able to move away from that huge upfront cost to invent manufacturing,” Chung told me.

While Gridtential is tackling the lead acid battery market, Romeo Power, which raised a $30 million seed round in late August, is looking at novel technologies for lithium ion battery packs. Not focusing on battery chemistry itself, Romeo is wooing investors with its pitch for power management.

As Romeo co-founder Mike Patterson:

“The [battery] cells are a commodity, it’s true. But of the hundreds of cells [available to buy], you have to know which is the best for a particular application. Then you have to get as many cells as you can into the smallest space possible, to create volumetric density. Then,” he says, “to keep the cells from getting too hot, you need to put them in the right container and connect them using the right materials and methods.”

Some projects are even farther afield. Bill Joy, for instance, has doubled down on his investment in an entirely new material science that could radically remake the battery industry.

One of the solutions to Joy’s “grand challenge” breakthroughs, Ionic Materials has created a low-cost new material that completely reimagines what makes a battery. “We had decided in the case of batteries that the thing that would make the difference would be to have them not have liquids in them,” Joy said of the initial challenge.

The solution was found in a material invented in 2011 by a Tufts professor and former Bell Labs researcher named Mike Zimmerman. The new technology is called a solid polymer lithium metal battery.

“Mike invented a specialty polymer that he can tweak and conduct ions at room temperature,” Joy told me. “It’s a new conduction mechanism.”

Ionic’s energy storage tech uses a solid, almost plastic-like, polymer to allow lithium ions to flow from anode to cathode. The company claims that its new electrolytes can work the same as a cathode; are conductive at room temperature, can be more stable, less flammable, and can be produced in high volumes.

Wired called it the Jesus Battery.

Indeed, if the company’s material can allow for greater flexibility, more power, and better safety standards than a traditional lithium-ion battery, it would be a miracle.

It’ll take something of a miracle to advance battery technologies. There haven’t been significant innovations in energy storage for a few decades, with most of the real improvements coming in how batteries are packed together to create more storage capacity. The inherent technology has remained fairly constant.

While Romeo is tackling the packing problem, both Gridtential and Ioinic are proposing material science solutions to some of the battery industry’s problems — and as the financing indicates they’re not the only ones.

Battery Investors 3 190078748_d8e3d76813_oEnergy storage is a potential trillion-dollar business, and with a potential market of that size, it’s no wonder that investors are (albeit cautiously) coming back in to a market that had jolted them in the past.

 

 

Mobility Disruption by Tony Seba – Silicon Valley Entrepreneur and Lecturer at Stanford University – The Coming EV Revolution by 2030? – YouTube Video


Tony Seba, Silicon Valley entrepreneur, Author and Thought Leader, Lecturer at Stanford University, Keynote

The reinvention and connection between infrastructure and mobility will fundamentally disrupt the clean transport model. It will change the way governments and consumers think about mobility, how power is delivered and consumed and the payment models for usage. Will we be ALL Electric Vehicles by 2030? Is the ICE Dead? Impossible?

Eco-Friendly Desalination using MOF’s could Supply the Lithium needed to Manufacture Batteries required to Mainstream EV’s


A new water purification (desalination) technology could be the key to more electric cars. How?

“Eco-Friendly Mining” of world’s the oceans for the vast amounts of lithium required for EV batteries, could “mainstream” our acceptance (affordability and accessibility) of Electric Vehicles and provide clean water – forecast to be in precious short supply in many parts of the World in the not so distant future.

energy_storage_2013-042216-_11-13-1Humanity is going to need a lot of lithium batteries if electric cars are going to take over, and that presents a problem when there’s only so much lithium available from conventional mines.

A potential solution is being researched that turns the world’s oceans into eco-friendly “Lithium supply mines.”

Scientists have outlined a desalination technique that would use metal-organic frameworks (sponge-like structures with very high surface areas) with sub-nanometer pores to catch lithium ions while purifying ocean water.

The approach mimics the tendency of cell membranes to selectively dehydrate and carry ions, leaving the lithium behind while producing water you can drink.

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While the concept of extracting lithium from our oceans certainly isn’t new, this new technology method would be much more efficient and environmentally friendly.

Instead of tearing up the landscape to find mineral deposits, battery makers would simply have to deploy enough filters.

It could even be used to make the most of water when pollution does take place — recovering lithium from the waste water at shale gas fields.

This method will require more research and development before it’s ready for real-world use.

However, the implications are already clear. If this desalination approach reaches sufficient scale, the world would have much more lithium available for electric vehicles, phones and other battery-based devices. It would also reduce the environmental impact of those devices. storedot-ev-battery-21-889x592 (1)

While some say current lithium mining practices negates some of the eco-friendliness of an EV, this “purification for Lithium” approach could let you drive relatively guilt-free

Reposted from Jonathan Fingas – Engadget

The Death Of Oil: Scientists Eyeball 2X EV Battery Range


For someone who’s all in for fossil fuels, President* Trump sure has a thing for electric vehicles.

Last October the US Energy Department announced $15 million in funding to jumpstart the next generation of “extremely” fast charging systems, and last week the agency’s SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory announced a breakthrough discovery for doubling the range of EV batteries.

Put the two together, and you have EVs that can go farther than any old car, and fuel up just about as quickly.

Add the convenience factor of charging up at home or at work, and there’s your recipe for killing oil. #ThanksTrump!

A Breakthrough Energy Storage Discovery For Electric Vehicles

Did you know that it’s possible to double the range of today’s electric vehicles?

No, really! The current crop of  lithium-ion batteries use just half of their theoretical capacity, so there is much room for improvement.

To get closer to 100%, all you have to do is “overstuff” the positive electrode — the cathode — with more lithium. Theoretically, that would enable the battery to absorb more ions in the same space. Theoretically.

Unfortunately, previous researchers have demonstrated that supercharged cathodes lose voltage too quickly to be useful in EVs, because their atomic structure changes.

During the charge cycle, lithium ions leave the supercharged cathode and transition metal atoms move in. When the battery discharges, not all of the transition metal atoms go back to where they came from, leaving less space for the lithium ions to return.

It’s kind of like letting two friends crash on your couch, and one of them never leaves.

That’s the problem tackled by a research team based at the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory (SLAC is located at Stanford University and the name is a long story involving some trademark issues, but apparently it’s all good now).

Here’s Stanford grad student and study leader William E. Gent enthusing over the new breakthrough:

It gives us a promising new pathway for optimizing the voltage performance of lithium-rich cathodes by controlling the way their atomic structure evolves as a battery charges and discharges.

Umm, okay.

In other words, the SLAC team discovered a way to manipulate the atomic structure of supercharged cathodes, so the battery doesn’t lose voltage during the charge/discharge cycle.

And, here’s where oil dies:

The more ions an electrode can absorb and release in relation to its size and weight — a factor known as capacity — the more energy it can store and the smaller and lighter a battery can be, allowing batteries to shrink and electric cars to travel more miles between charges.

No, Really — How Does It Work?

To get to the root of the problem, the research team deployed some fancy equipment at  SLAC’s SSRL (Stanford Synchotron Radiation Lightsource) to track the atomic-level changes that a lithium-rich battery undergoes during charging cycles.

First, they defined the problem:

…clarifying the nature of anion redox and its effect on electrochemical stability requires an approach that simultaneously probes the spatial distribution of anion redox chemistry and the evolution of local structure.

The research team “unambiguously confirmed” the interplay between oxygen and the transition metal, along with the mechanism for controlling that reaction:

Our results further suggest that anion redox chemistry can be tuned through control of the crystal structure and resulting TM migration pathways, providing an alternative route to improve Li-rich materials without altering TM–O bond covalency through substitution with heavier 4d and 5d TMs.

The equipment angle is essential, btw. Apparently, until the new SLAC study nailed it down there was widespread disagreement on the root cause of the problem.

The new research was made possible in part by a new soft X-ray RIXS system, which was just installed at the lab last year (RIX stands for resonant inelastic X-ray scattering).

You can get all the details from the study, “Coupling between oxygen redox and cation migration explains unusual electrochemistry in lithium-rich layered oxides,” which just came out in the journal Nature Communications.

So, Now What?

The SLAC team points out that until now, RIXS has been mainly used in foundational research. The new study goes a long way to confirming the practical application of RIXS.

In other words, the floodgates are open to a new wave of advanced energy storage research leading to better, cheaper EV batteries and faster charging systems.

In that regard its worth noting that along with the Energy Department, Samsung partnered in the new study and chipped in some of the funding.

That’s a pretty clear indication that Samsung is looking to crack open the Panasonic/Tesla partnership and take over global leadership of the energy storage field. Last September, Samsung unveiled a new 600-km (430-mile) battery for EVs, but the company was mum on the details.

Last November, Samsung unveiled a new version of its SM3 ZE sedan, in which the size of the battery was doubled without increasing the weight of the vehicle. That’s a significant achievement and the company has been tight-lipped on that score, too.

Samsung is also exploring graphene for advanced, long range batteries, so there’s that.

“Perhaps News of My (Oil) premature Death has been misreported”

As for the death of oil, electric vehicles are getting their place in the sun, no matter how much Trump talks up fossil fuels.

That still leaves the issue of petrochemicals.

Although the green chemistry movement is gathering steam, the US petrochemical industry has been taking off like a rocket in recent years. That means both oil and natural gas production could continue apace for the foreseeable future, with or without gasmobiles.

ExxonMobil has been making huge moves into the Texas epicenter of US petrochemicals, and just last week the Houston Chronicle noted this development:

Michigan and Delware-based DowDuPont announced earlier this year that it would spend $4 billion expanding its industrial campus in Freeport.

The expansion will give Freeport the largest ethylene plant in the world. Houston-based Freeport LNG is also building an LNG export terminal in the area.

Then there’s this:

By 2019, Freeport’s power demand is expected to be 92 percent higher than it was in 2016, according to ERCOT.

The $246.7 million project will include a new 48 mile transmission line and upgrades to shorter line in the area, according to ERCOT.

NREL Reports: Plug-In EV’s and the ‘Charging Infrastructure’ Needed to Support Them


How much vehicle charging infrastructure is needed in the United States to support broader adoption scenarios for various types of plug-in electric vehicles?

 

 
A new report by NREL for the U.S. Department of Energy takes a look, providing guidance to public and private stakeholders seeking a nationwide network of non-residential (public and workplace) vehicle charging infrastructure.

See the full report at: http://bit.ly/2xWVfjh

 

 

Watch the Video and Watch for Our First Commercial Product Launch: Coming Soon!

Super Capacitor Assisted Silicon Nanowire Batteries for EV and Small Form Factor Markets. A New Class of Battery /Energy Storage Materials is being developed to support the High Energy – High Capacity – High Performance High Cycle Battery Markets. “Ultrathin Asymmetric Porous-Nickel Graphene-Based Super capacitor with High Energy Density and Silicon Nanowire,” A New Generation Battery that is:

 Energy Dense

 High Specific Power

 Simple Low Cost Manufacturing Process

 Rapid Charge/ Re-Charge

 Flexible Form Factor

 Long Warranty Life

 Non-Toxic – Non Flamable

 Highly Scaleable

Key Markets & Commercial Applications:

 EV, (18650 & 21700); Drone and Marine Batteries

 Wearable Electronics< Medical Sensors and The Internet of Things

 Estimated $225B Market by 2025



Clemson University team’s graphene-enhanced aluminum-ion batteries outperform lithium-ion ones


Oct 19, 2017

Clemson’s graphene-enhanced aluminum ion batteries outperform Li-ion ones image



Researchers at Clemson University in the U.S have shown that replacing lithium with aluminum and graphene may be key for next-gen batteries.

Aluminum is regarded as non-toxic and much more plentiful than the lithium currently in widespread use (and cheaper). Aluminum also transfers energy more efficiently. Inside a battery, the element — lithium or aluminum — gives up some of its electrons, which flow through external wires to power a device.

Because of their atomic structure, lithium ions can only provide one electron at a time; aluminum can give three at a time. That, the team says, is the real point of the switch.
Still, aluminum ion batteries designed by other researchers have not performed as well as lithium ion batteries.

The Clemson team describes how they were able to get aluminum ion to perform better than previously tested aluminum ion batteries. “The problem isn’t that aluminum ions are deficient,” said a graduate student at the Clemson Nanomaterials Institute and the first author of the Nano Energy paper. 

It’s that unlike lithium ions that have been around for a while, we do not know much about how aluminum ions behave inside the battery.”


Material Matters

The electrode in a battery is like a bucket and the electrical charge is like sand inside the bucket. If the sand starts to flow out, the speed at which it flows is the current. The greater the speed (the larger the current) the quicker the bucket is empty and the sooner the battery goes flat. The more sand you store in the bucket, the longer the current lasts.

The Clemson team seems to have found a way to pack more sand in the bucket and used tools to confirm the bucket was full. Their new battery technology uses aluminum foil and few-layer graphene as the electrode to store electrical charge from aluminum ions present in the electrolyte.

“We knew that aluminum ions could be stored inside few-layer graphene,” the team said. “But the ions need to be packed efficiently to increase the battery capacity. The arrangement of aluminum ions inside graphene is critical for better battery performance.”

“These aluminum batteries can last more than 10,000 cycles without any performance loss,” the researchers said. “Our hope is to make aluminum batteries with higher energy to ultimately displace lithium-ion technology.”
The next step toward a commercially viable aluminum ion battery is lowering the cost. Although aluminum is relatively inexpensive, the electrolytes are pricey.

Source:  Clemson

Cummins Beats Tesla To The Punch And Introduces An All-Electric Heavy-Duty Truck



With Tesla purportedly gearing up to introduce an all-electric semi next month, diesel engine supplier Cummins took some of the automaker’s buzz away on Tuesday, revealed an all-electric prototype truck of its own.

Read More: Here’s More Reasons Why We Need Electric Trucks




Billed as a Class 7 Urban Hauler Tractor, the 18,000-pound truck was built by Roush and is geared for local deliveries, according to the Indianapolis Star. The company said it plans to begin selling a 140 kWh battery pack for bus operators and commercial truck fleets in 2019, reports Forbes.

With a claimed range of 100 miles, it certainly seems apt to handle short drives, and Cummins said it only takes an hour to charge. By the time it’s introduced in 2020, Forbes reports, the company hopes to drop that number to 20 minutes. 

A hybrid, with a diesel engine used on-board as a generator, is planned later and will offer 300 miles in range.

Cummins’ chief exec, Thomas Linebarger, told Forbes that electric technology isn’t quite ready for 18-wheelers, mostly due to the long distances they travel. Tesla’s truck will reportedly be set to handle lengthier tasks, with 200 to 300 miles on a single charge, but that remains far below the 1,000 miles a typical heavy-duty truck can handle on one tank of gas.

Cummins may have introduced a prototype truck cab to show off, but the company only intends to produce the powertrain for trucks, Forbes reports.

Super Capacitors Could Make the Tesla ‘Battery Model for an EV World’ Obsolete: Videos



Tesla’s growth has been built on its pioneering battery technology but they’re slow to charge, have limited lifetimes and are heavy. The latest research on supercapacitors does away with all of that and may mean ‘Tesla Battery Model for an EV World’ is a losing bet (Watch Videos Below)

Introduction

Transportation is the largest consumer of oil and the globally, it’s the biggest source of pollution, greenhouse gases, soot and fine particulates; gasoline and diesel have fuelled global transport and been the lifeblood of the international oil majors and national oil companies.

That, however, may be changing. Oil’s power density and affordable price has made alternatives non-starters, pushed many mass transit systems to bankruptcy, and made auto, tyre, road construction, and insurance companies rich.

Fuel energy density including supercapacitors

The Tesla effect

Then came Tesla, for the first time offering a slick, high-performance car with reasonable range.

Currently too expensive for the mass market, Tesla has nevertheless challenged the internal combustion engine (ICE) industry and forced virtually all car markers to get into electric vehicles.

With a $5 billion gigafactory just completed in July 2016 near Reno, Nevada. Tesla is promising to move mainstream, offering more affordable cars with decent range. Tesla-Gigafactory-Nevada

That is all wonderful. But Tesla and all other electric and hybrid cars still suffer from lack of charging infrastructure, and even when that is in place, drivers will have to take long breaks on long drives to recharge their batteries. 
Depending on the details, 90 minutes or more are typically needed to more-or-less recharge an empty car battery, an annoying wait compared to a five-minute fillup at the corner gas station.

 

Tesla’s growth has been built on its pioneering battery technology but they’re slow to charge, have limited lifetimes and are heavy. The latest research on supercapacitors does away with all of that and may mean ‘Tesla Battery Model for an EV World’ is a losing bet


Battery Woes

Tesla Battery Pack 2014-08-19-19.10.42-1280Moreover, even with Tesla’s slick design, the batteries are heavy and can only be charged/discharged so many times, after which their performance drops. Trucks and heavy-duty vehicles pose even more difficult challenges if they are not recharged frequently – not always convenient or practical. Batteries, in other words, are not a perfect substitute for cheap petrol which is available nearly everywhere you go.

What would be ideal is a light, inexpensive battery that can pack large amounts of energy in a small space, can be charged more or less instantly, and discharged more or less indefinitely without loss of performance. 

That would be the holy grail of storage, not only challenging the ICEs but also making Tesla’s gigafactory virtually obsolete before it starts mass production.


Super Potential for Supercapacitors

A new generation of supercapacitors made from cheap and plentiful material – now in laboratories – is expected to become commercial in three to five years. According to UCLA Professor Richard Kaner, the company he is affiliated with, Nanotech Energy, is using graphene as the basic medium for storing energy. (Also See Video for ‘Tenka Energy’ below)

As the technology moves out of the laboratory, he expects it to initially find a role in high-value applications such as mobile phones and computers, followed by other applications such as electric vehicles.

Supercapacitors Recharge Rate

The ability to fast-charge a supercapacitor in, say, two minutes or so, will solve the range anxiety associated with current EVs. 
Imagine pulling into an electric charging station and getting more or less fully recharged in the amount of time it takes to fill up your tank with gas. Who needs clunky, noisy, polluting cars, or even Tesla batteries?

The same fast-charging supercapacitors can power mass transit buses in cities around the world. If the bus’ supercapacitor can be charged in two minutes or less, then every bus stop can be a charging station, allowing the bus to travel long distances without ever running out of juice. That would be a game changer.

Tesla, which is facing many daunting deadlines and competition from multiple directions, may find that its gigafactory is a losing bet if supercapacitors come to deliver as their proponents claim.

Now THAT … That would be yet another game changer!

From ‘The Energy Analyst’

 

Watch: Video Presentation of New ‘Tenka Power Max SuperCap’

EV Batteries: A $240 Billion Industry In the Making that China is Taking the Lead


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Even those who consider themselves somewhat knowledgeable about the electric vehicle (EV) industry would be hard pressed to name more than a handful of EV battery suppliers.

Most would quickly name Japan’s Panasonic and South Korea’s Samsung and LG Chem, as well as reference the Gigafactoy that Panasonic and Tesla opened this past January in Nevada. A few of the more knowledgeable would also name BYD, a leading electric vehicle manufacturer in China that is also one of the world’s largest battery suppliers.

Other than those names, however, and perhaps one or two other lesser known players, the list would end there.

 

Nearly everyone would be surprised to learn that there are now more than 140 EV battery manufacturers in China, busily building capacity in order to claim a share of what will become a $240 billion global industry within the next 20 years. As in all things auto, EVs and the batteries that will power them promise to be big industries in China.

A $240 billion industry

The math is simple. Respected auto analysts like those at Bernstein, a Wall Street research and securities firm, are predicting that EVs will account for as much as 40% of global vehicle purchases in 20 years. Since almost 100 million vehicles are produced and sold globally, that means that the annual market for EVs will be 40 million, even if the total global vehicle build does not increase between now and then.

Assuming that battery prices reach parity with the $6,000 cost of an internal combustion engine, a $240 billion battery industry is now in the making. Due to its well-publicized problems combatting air pollution, China will lead the way in EVs, as well as in batteries.

Read more: Why China Is Leading The World’s Boom In Electric Vehicles

In order to meet projected demand, battery cell manufacturing capacity globally will need to increase dramatically, which is why China’s battery makers are aggressively expanding. When Tesla and Panasonic announced in 2014 their plans to build a “Gigafactory” capable of producing 35 Gigawatt hours (GWh) of battery cells every year, that was big news. (A GWh is equal to one million kilowatt hours.) After all, the entire battery capacity in the world at the time was less than 50 GWh.

A great deal has changed over the last three years, though. Led by China, battery cell manufacturing capacity has more than doubled to 125 GWh, and is projected to double again to over 250 GWh by 2020. Even that will not be nearly enough. Total cell production capacity will need to increase tenfold from 2020 to 2037, the equivalent of adding 60 new Gigafactories, during that period.

 

Shifting towards China

Battery technology originated in Japan; was then further developed by companies in Korea; and is now shifting strongly toward China. China’s cell production already has a larger share of global production than Japan’s, and China’s global market share is projected to rise to more than 70% by 2020.

BYD 2 960x0

This photo taken on May 22, 2017 shows a car passing new electric vehicles parked in a parking lot under a viaduct in Wuhan, central China’s Hubei province. (STR/AFP/Getty Images)

Rapid market growth for EVs in China, as well as the tendency for Chinese auto assemblers to use homegrown products, augurs well for China’s continued leadership in battery cell manufacturing. According to Roland Berger’s E-mobility Index Q2 2017 report, locally made lithium-ion cells are used in more than 90% of the EVs produced by Chinese manufacturers.

Read more: The Electric Car Market Has A ‘Chicken Or Egg’ Problem — And China Is Solving It

With so many Chinese companies hoping to enter the battery sweepstakes, China’s government is considering policies that will set minimum production capacities for battery manufacturers as a way to further strengthen its position as a global leader. Although not yet official, Beijing would like Chinese manufacturers to have a production volume of at least 3 to 5 GWh per year. Separately, Beijing released draft guidelines at the end of 2016 stipulating that battery manufacturers would need to have at least 8 GWh of production capacity in order to qualify for subsidies. As a signal to the market, the government is planning to back the development of only those battery companies with annual production capacities of 40 GWh or more.img_0160

Who the government is championing

While Panasonic is the world’s largest supplier of electric vehicle batteries globally, Chinese companies are catching up.

Based in Shenzhen, BYD — which stands for “Build Your Dream” — is a Hong Kong listed, Chinese car company that in 2016 produced almost 500,000 cars and buses, approximately 100,000 of which were EVs or plug-in hybrids. Consistent with BYD’s strategy of vertical integration, it also has 20 GWh of battery cell capacity and is China’s largest battery maker.

In 2008, a subsidiary of Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway invested $230 million in BYD, which at the time represented a 10% stake in the company. BYD is now valued in the marketplace at $16.9 billion.

Read more: China And The U.S. Supercharge The Growing Global Electric Vehicle Industry

CATL is another leading Chinese battery company. Founded in 2011 and headquartered in Ningde, Fujian province, CATL focuses on the production of lithium-ion batteries and the development of energy storage systems. With manufacturing bases in Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Guangdong provinces, CATL has 7.7 GWh of battery capacity and plans to have battery production capacity of 50 GWh by 2020. Like BYD, CATL is the type of company that the Chinese government wants to support and promote as a national champion.

Companies to watch

Other companies to watch are Tianjin based Lishen Battery and Hangzhou’s Wanxiang Group.

BYD 3960x0

State Grid Corp. of China (SGCC) battery packs sit on display in the showroom of Wanxiang Group Corp. in Hangzhou, China in September 2016. (Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg)

Lishen has production bases in Bejing, Qingdao, Suzhou, Wuhan, Ningbo, Shenzhen and Mianyang, and plans to have 20 GWh of battery cell capacity by 2020. And Wanxiang is one of China’s largest private companies and one of the country’s leading automotive components suppliers. In 1994, Wanxiang established a U.S. company in Elgin, Illinois. Since then, Wanxiang has made over two dozen acquisitions in the United States, including A123, a battery maker that had gone into bankruptcy, in 2013, and Fisker Automotive in 2014.

The flip side to the coming Electric Revolution, of course, is that for every battery pack that is put into a vehicle, one less internal combustion engine is needed. While the growth of EVs will give rise to a large global battery industry, it will also make obsolete the substantial investments that have been made in global engine and engine component capacity.

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Tenka Power Max SuperCap Battery Pack for 18650 and 21700 Markets

Super Capacitor Assisted Silicon (and graphene) Nanowire Batteries for EV and Small Form Factor Markets. A New Class of Battery /Energy Storage Materials is being developed to support the High Energy – High Capacity – High Performance High Cycle Battery Markets.

“Ultrathin Asymmetric Porous-Nickel Graphene-Based
Supercapacitor with High Energy Density and Silicon Nanowire,”

A New Generation Battery that is:

 Energy Dense
 High Specific Power
 Simple Manfacturing Process
 Low Manufacturing Cost
 Rapid Charge/ Re-Charge
 Flexible Form Factor
 Long Warranty Life
 Non-Toxic
 Highly Scalable

Key Markets & Commercial Applications

 EV, (18650 & 21700); Drone and Marine Batteries
 Wearable Electronics and The Internet of Things
Estimated $240B Market by 2037