Also, the context for the reported values is often not clearly stated, inviting comparison of inequivalent values from multiple sources.
For example, cells are often combined into packs for specific vehicles at significant added cost, so it is not appropriate to compare a cell cost with a pack cost, even if they are both expressed in the same units ($/kWh).
NREL recently developed a fact sheet that demonstrates the importance of understanding the full context of various cost and price metrics of lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery cell and cell packs.
The fact sheet provides metrics for light-duty vehicle cell and cell pack market price, modeled price, modeled cost, and lab achieved costs.
The data comes from market reports, CEMAC cost models, and the Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) of the U.S. Department of Energy. At first glance, the metrics (in the figure below) can appear to contradict each other, as VTO Lab Achieved Costs are significantly lower than the others.
However, the differences can be reconciled by investigating the metrics themselves, specifically by distinguishing between cost and price and the underlying assumptions, such as technology maturity.
Cost versus Price: Comparing the 2015 modeled price to observed market prices suggests that market factors—not manufacturing cost considerations—currently influence pricing decisions.
This is further substantiated by comparing both the CEMAC and Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) cost modeling results to observed prices, which suggests that manufacturers have sold at or even below their costs of production in recent years. (For more on modeled cost versus price, see our earlier blog posts on this topic).
A chart displays market and modeled prices and costs for Lithium Ion batteries in 2014 and 2015.
The market prices are as follows. BNEF: for 2014, $615 for pack, $367 for cell; for 2015 $399 for pack, $234 for cell. Total Battery Consulting: for 2014, $538 for pack, $316 for cell; for 2015, $477 for pack, $282 for cell. Roland Berger: for 2015, $220 for cell.
The modeled prices are as follows. CEMAC: for 2015, $570 for pack, $342 for cell.
The modeled costs are as follows. CEMAC: for 2015, $495 for pack, $297 for cell. BNEF: for 2015, $492 for pack, $276 for cell. The VTO lab achieved costs are as follows. VTO pack + cell costs: for 2014, $289; for 2015 $268.
Technology Maturity: The CEMAC and BNEF cost modeling results in the chart above benchmark the 2015 cost of light-duty, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle cells and packs that were produced using commercially available technology.
The VTO modeled costs, by contrast, are meant to estimate the projected commercial-scale production cost of technologies that are currently in research and development.
A graph demonstrating that VTO’s lab achieved costs lead modeled manufacturing costs by about 4 years.
A 3-to-5-year lag is representative of the time required to move near-commercial VTO portfolio technologies, which have been proven at the lab or pilot scale, into large-scale commercial production.
The examples above demonstrate the importance of understanding the full context of various cost and price metrics that are reported in technical papers, market research reports, and the general media—especially with respect to relatively immature technologies and markets where a standard paradigm has yet to develop.
Without this context, it is not possible to reasonably compare or analyze cost and price values from multiple sources.